Case-Shiller Indices Post Strongest Gain Since 2006

 

By: Mark Lieberman, Five Star Institute Economist 03/26/2013

Home prices posted their strongest year-over-year gain in almost seven years in January, according to the Case-Shiller 10- and 20-city Home Price Indices released Tuesday. Home prices rose year-over-year in all 20 of the cities in the Case-Shiller survey.

Month-over-month, the 10-city index improved 0.2 percent in January, while the 20-city index was up 0.1 percent. Year-over-year, the 10-city index was up 7.3 percent, and the 20-city index rose 8.1 percent.

Economists had forecast the month-over-month gain in the 20-city index would be 0.1 percent and the year-over-year gain would be 8.2 percent.

Prices rose in nine cities in January over December while falling in eight. Prices were unchanged in the remaining three. December data were revised showing prices rose month-over-month in 10 cities compared with nine in the original report.

The 10-city index rose to 158.72, its highest level since October 2010, while the 20-city index improved to 146.14, its highest level since September 2010.

The report showed a steady improvement in prices in the West. Prices have increased in Phoenix for 16 straight months, in Los Angeles and San Francisco for 11 straight months, in Denver for 11 of the last 12 months, and in Las Vegas for 10 straight months.

By contrast, prices in cities in other regions have been more erratic: down for the last five months in Washington D.C. and Cleveland after improving for six straight months, down in Chicago for the last five months after improving for the previous five months, and down in Boston for four of the last five months.

The year-over-year price gains were led by Phoenix, where prices rose 23.2 percent, consistent with a sharp drop in that city’s unemployment rate, which fell to 7.3 percent from 8.3 percent in the same period.

Prices rose 17.5 percent year-over-year in San Francisco, which saw its unemployment rate tumble to 6.8 percent from 8.1 percent. In Las Vegas, where the unemployment rate fell to 10.4 percent from 13.3 percent in the last year, prices rose 15.3 percent.

Price rose 13.8 percent in Detroit despite an increase in the unemployment rate from 18.8 percent to 19.8 percent.

Three other cities saw double-digit percent gains in prices in the last year: Atlanta (+13.4 percent), Los Angeles and Minneapolis (+12.1 percent each). In Atlanta, the unemployment rate fell to 11.2 percent from 11.7 percent in the last year; in Los Angeles, the unemployment rate dropped to 12.1 percent from 13.3 percent from January 2012 to January 2013; and in Minneapolis, the unemployment rate increased to 5.8 percent from 5.5 percent in the last year.

Month-over-month price gains were led by Las Vegas (+1.6 percent), Phoenix (+1.1 percent), and Atlanta (+1.0 percent). Prices rose by less than 1.0 percent in January in Charlotte, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Francisco, and Tampa.

Prices fell 0.9 percent in January in Chicago and Detroit and 0.7 percent in Washington D.C. Prices fell by less than 0.6 percent in January in Cleveland, Minneapolis, Portland, and Seattle.

Prices were unchanged in January in Boston, Dallas, and Denver.

The 10-city index, at 158.72, is down 29.9 percent from its June 2006 high of 226.29 and the 20-city index, at 146.14, is off 29.2 percent from its July 2006 peak of 206.52.

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Broward home prices rise 23 percent in February

By Paul Owers

Sun Sentinel

3:36 PM EDT, March 20, 2013

Home prices and sales rose in February from a year ago as the hot streak for South Florida’s housing market continues.

Broward County’s median price for existing homes last month was $227,000, a 23 percent increase from a year earlier, the Greater Fort Lauderdale Realtors said Thursday. There were 969 sales, up 7 percent from February 2012.

In Palm Beach County, the median was $235,000, 27 percent higher than a year ago, according to the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches. Sales hit 1,012, up 10 percent.

The market for existing condominiums also is strong in both counties. Palm Beach County’s median condo price is closing in on $100,000, rising 28 percent in February.

For sellers, at least, the region’s housing climate has improved dramatically in the past year. Still, some analysts worry that prices may be rising too fast, forcing buyers to overextend themselves and potentially creating another housing bubble.

Investor demand and a dwindling supply of homes have helped create bidding wars that drive up prices. The selling time for Broward homes dropped to 38 days in February from 51 a year ago. In Palm Beach County, days on market fell to 87 days from 101.

Judy Trudel, an agent for Balistreri Realty in Broward and Palm Beach counties, said she tells prospective buyers to tour homes as soon as they possibly can — and they should plan to bring their checkbooks and blank sales contracts. In some cases, the buyers fill out the paperwork on the hoods of their cars to beat the competition.

“If you can’t get the houses as soon as they come on the market, you’re done for,” Trudel said.

Some industry observers say the Realtor numbers are skewed as more large investment firms buy foreclosed homes in bulk and turn them into rentals.

Many of those transactions aren’t factored into the Realtor data because the homes were bought directly from lenders and never listed for sale to the general public. The Realtor figures also do not include homes sold by owners without an agent.

As the market continues to recover, some sellers are convinced their homes are worth more than they are, real estate agents say.

Stephen B. McWilliam, of Florida State Realty Group in Fort Lauderdale, said he had a client who made a market rate offer on a Coral Springs home, but the owner wanted $40,000 more.

“There are some irrational sellers out there right now,” McWilliam said.

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Real Estate in 2013…

It’s here, the year 2013!

And what does this mean for real estate?  Here’s what we are hoping—

  •  As the U.S. heads into 2013, home values are on the rise to an 8.3%

year-over-year surge in December, according to CoreLogic.  December homes prices grew the most annually since May 2006.

 

  •  In 2012, the sales volume in BrowardCounty hit $768 million, up 47% from 2009.  Let’s hope the sales volume keeps going up!

 

  •  The most encouraging foreclosure trend that RealtyTrac reports is that the inventory of foreclosed properties is almost 20% less than a year ago.  Here’s hoping the foreclosure number continues to decrease.

 

  • In 2013, more homeowners currently trapped in underwater mortgages will slowly begin to surface with their recovered equity.  These homeowners may emerge from the sidelines and start selling and buying homes. Twenty-two percent of homes with a mortgage or over 12 million homes are currently in negative equity.  States with highest negative equity are the following:  Nevada; Florida; Arizona; Georgia and Michigan.

 

  • The housing recovery will help create jobs in 2013.  Construction companies have added 98,000 jobs in the past four months, the best hiring spree since the bubble burst in 2006. A housing recovery also strengthens local and state governments, as government revenues are closely tied to property values through property taxes.   As the economy recovers, and hiring increases, housing demand strengthens.

 

  • Stronger demand paired with limited inventory in many markets is helping to fuel a housing recovery.  Many economists expect this recovery to continue in 2013.

 

  • Home affordability continues and mortgage rates remain low through 2013.

 

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Broward County Housing Update

(As of January 2013)

 

Single Family Homes

Lowest Inventory:     March 2005—2,235 homes for sale

Peak Inventory:        April 2008—14,489 homes for sale

December 2012:       3,442 Homes (76% reduction)

Median Home Price:

December 2011:       $194,000

December 2012:      $220,000

$  26,000 Difference or 13% increase in 2012

Single-Family Homes (10 Year Median Prices)

December 2002:       $213,000

July 2005 (Peak):     $394,000

December 2012:       $220,000 (44% decline from 2002)

Active Homes for Sale:

Under $100,000       283 = 8% of Inventory; 17% of Sales

Under $300,000       1,544 = 45% of Inventory; 69% of Sales

$300,000-$999,999 1,301 = 38% of Inventory; 28% of Sales

$1,000,000+              597 = 17% of Inventory; 3% of Sales

$3,000,000+              161 = 5% of Inventory

REOs                         228 = 7% of Inventory; 19% of Sales

Short Sales               583 = 17% of Inventory; 25% of Sales

Non-Distressed        2,631 = 76% of Inventory; 57% of Sales

Condominiums:

Lowest Inventory:     August 2004—2,531 Condos for sale

Peak Inventory:        September 2007—19,804

December 2012:       5,143 (74% reduction)

Median Condo Price:

December 2002:       $106,000

Jan 2006 (Peak)      $215,000

December 2012:       $94,000 (56% reduction)

Active Condos for Sale:

Under $100,000       2,036 = 40% of Inventory; 53% of Sales

Under $300,000       3,914 = 72% of Inventory; 91% of Sales

$300,000-$999,999 1,031 = 20% of Inventory; 8% of Sales

$1,000,000+              198 = 4% of Inventory

REOs                         358 = 7% of Inventory; 19% of Sales

Short Sales               512 = 10% of Inventory; 19% of Sales

Non-Distressed        4,268 = 83% of Inventory; 61% of Sales

 

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Facts and Trends

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Total home sales jump 6% in 2012

The U.S. posted 4.2 million home sales in 2012, up 6% from a year earlier, and the first year-over-year sales gain in seven years.

The year 2012 brought a housing turnaround with total home sales increasing 6% to 4.2 million sales for the entire year, CoreLogic said Monday.

This is the first year-over-year sales increase since 2005, signaling a housing market that is rebounding and poised for further growth, the data research firm suggested.

The total home sales figure for 2012 is up from 3.9 million in 2011.

New home sales also improved, growing 3% to 300,000 transactions on brand new homes in 2012.

The distressed housing market also thawed, with REO sales declining more than 20% to 600,000 sales last year.

Meanwhile, short-sales rose 23% to 370,000 units, the highest level since the real estate downturn.

At the same time, serious delinquencies (or loans that are 90 days or more past due) fell by nearly 300,000 loans last year, pushing the serious delinquency rate down from 7.4% to 6.9%.

CoreLogic noted an ongoing two-year decline in late payments, with serious delinquencies falling by one million loans since the January 2010 peak.

As the housing market pushes deeper into 2013, CoreLogic sees real estate “poised for further recovery,” despite the uncertainty of how the qualified mortgage rule and other new regulations will impact lending.

“Rising home prices will continue to slowly release pent-up supply as under-equitied borrowers are unlocked and opportunistic sellers begin to provide relief to tight inventories,” CoreLogic wrote. “Geographic diversity in home price growth will continue.”

kpanchuk@housingwire.com

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South Florida housing recovery ranks among nation’s best…

By Paul Owers, Sun Sentinel

8:04 a.m. EST, January 14, 2013

South Florida was one of the country’s hardest-hit housing markets, but now it’s among the most improved.

Palm Beach County‘s median price hit $169,000 in December, a 35 percent annual increase that led the nation, according to a recent report from California brokerage ZipRealty.

Broward County‘s median price last month was $127,000, a 21 percent jump that ranked ninth nationwide. Miami-Dade County’s 20 percent increase was tied for 10th with Sacramento.

Prices also are rising quickly in Phoenix, San Francisco and Las Vegas, the ZipRealty data show.

South Florida homes lost about half their value in the housing crisis, but the market bounced back in a big way in 2012.

Strong demand by investors, a shortage of homes for sale and rising rental rates are contributing to the recovery, real estate brokers say.

Joseph Pucillo, a vice president for ZipRealty, said distressed homes are drawing investor interest partly because lenders are paying owners to complete short sales and leave the properties in good condition.

“Investors are paying $250,000 for homes that would have cost $400,000 a few years ago,” Pucillo said. “It’s valued very attractively right now. It just makes sense to go there.”

Top turnaround markets

Area; Dec 2011 median price; Dec. 2012 median price: Percent change

Palm Beach County $125,000; $169,000; 35 percent

San Francisco-East Bay $275,000; $361,000; 31 percent

Phoenix $120,000; $157,000; 31 percent

San Francisco $592,250; $768,000; 30 percent

Silicon Valley $430,000; $548,500; 28 percent

Las Vegas $109,000; $136,350; 25 percent

Tucson $119,950; $148,689; 24 percent

San. Gabriel Valley, Calif. $203,000; $249,900; 23 percent

San Diego $305,000; $371,000; 22 percent

Broward County $105,000; $127,000; 21 percent

Miami-Dade County $138,000; $165,000; 20 percent

Sacramento $158,225; $190,000; 20 percent

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It’s fixed!

This is fixed!

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South Florida home-building on the way back!

by:  Paul Owers/Sun-Sentinel

Buyers looking for a brand new home are likely to have more to choose from this year.

New home construction is expected to rise 15 to 20 percent over the 949 homes started in 2011 across Palm Beach County, according to Brad Hunter, South Florida director of the Metrostudy research firm.

“People are more optimistic and ready to buy,” he said.

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Yes, It is Time to Buy a Home!

| Apr. 6, 2012, 4:15 PM |90 |Addison Wiggin & Samantha Buker,

The Daily Reckoning

 A little more than a year ago, a very successful professional investor declared, “If you don’t own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes, buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”

Since that declaration, house prices have continued drifting lower in most parts of the country. The Case-Shiller index of national home prices is down about 4% year over year. Even so, we’re betting this professional investor was merely early…not wrong. US housing isn’t just cheap; it is the cheapest it has been in more than 40 years. And when one considers the possibility that inflation may rear its head soon, housing looks even cheaper still.

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